FCB vs RAY
Barcelona (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 83%
Match Outcome
FCB win 70.3% fair 1.42
Draw 17.3% fair 5.79
RAY win 12.5% fair 8.02
Expected Goals
FCB
2.40
—
0.80
RAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.0% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.0% | fair 2.63 |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | fair 2.00 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 2-0 RAY | 11.7% | |
| FCB 1-0 RAY | 9.8% | |
| FCB 3-0 RAY | 9.4% | |
| FCB 2-1 RAY | 9.4% | |
| FCB 1-1 RAY | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).