FCB vs RAY
Barcelona (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 83% · pregame locked (08-31 · FT 5-2 ) · lineup adj ×1.08 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
FCB win 71.4% fair 1.40
Draw 16.2% fair 6.16
RAY win 12.3% fair 8.11
Expected Goals
FCB
2.59
—
0.88
RAY
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): FCB ×1.080 (matched 11), RAY ×1.100 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.4% | fair 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.6% | fair 3.07 |
| Both teams to score | 54.1% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 2-0 RAY | 10.4% | |
| FCB 2-1 RAY | 9.2% | |
| FCB 3-0 RAY | 9.0% | |
| FCB 1-0 RAY | 8.1% | |
| FCB 3-1 RAY | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).