ALA vs VIL
Alavés (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
ALA win 31.8% fair 3.14
Draw 23.2% fair 4.31
VIL win 45.0% fair 2.22
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.8% / 23.1% / 47.1%.
Expected Goals
ALA
1.38
—
1.78
VIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.8% | fair 2.57 |
| Both teams to score | 62.2% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| ALA 1-1 VIL | 10.4% | |
| ALA 1-2 VIL | 9.3% | |
| ALA 0-1 VIL | 7.6% | |
| ALA 2-1 VIL | 7.2% | |
| ALA 0-2 VIL | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ALA goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).