BET vs RMA
Real Betis (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 83% · pregame locked (09-04 · FT 1-0 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BET win 29.3% fair 3.41
Draw 21.8% fair 4.59
RMA win 48.9% fair 2.05
Expected Goals
BET
1.44
—
2.01
RMA
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): BET ×1.100 (matched 11), RMA ×1.100 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.1% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.9% | fair 3.04 |
| Both teams to score | 66.2% | fair 1.51 |
Most Likely Scores
| BET 1-2 RMA | 9.2% | |
| BET 1-1 RMA | 9.2% | |
| BET 2-2 RMA | 6.7% | |
| BET 2-1 RMA | 6.6% | |
| BET 0-2 RMA | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: BET goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).