ELC vs RSO
Elche (home) vs Real Sociedad · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
ELC win 41.0% fair 2.44
Draw 23.1% fair 4.33
RSO win 35.9% fair 2.78
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.2% / 22.9% / 36.9%.
Expected Goals
ELC
1.70
—
1.62
RSO
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.5% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.5% | fair 2.82 |
| Both teams to score | 65.6% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELC 1-1 RSO | 9.9% | |
| ELC 2-1 RSO | 8.5% | |
| ELC 1-2 RSO | 8.1% | |
| ELC 2-2 RSO | 6.9% | |
| ELC 1-0 RSO | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: ELC goals · Columns: RSO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).