GET vs CEL
Getafe (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (09-07 · FT 1-1 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
GET win 35.9% fair 2.78
Draw 31.0% fair 3.22
CEL win 33.0% fair 3.03
Expected Goals
GET
0.95
—
0.93
CEL
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): GET ×0.900 (matched 11), CEL ×0.900 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 29.2% | fair 3.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 70.8% | fair 1.41 |
| Both teams to score | 37.2% | fair 2.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| GET 0-0 CEL | 15.2% | |
| GET 1-0 CEL | 14.5% | |
| GET 0-1 CEL | 14.2% | |
| GET 1-1 CEL | 13.5% | |
| GET 2-0 CEL | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 14.2 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GET goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).