GET vs CEL
Getafe (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
GET win 36.4% fair 2.75
Draw 28.4% fair 3.52
CEL win 35.2% fair 2.84
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.0% / 29.0% / 35.9%.
Expected Goals
GET
1.10
—
1.12
CEL
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.1% | fair 2.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61.9% | fair 1.62 |
| Both teams to score | 44.8% | fair 2.23 |
Most Likely Scores
| GET 1-1 CEL | 13.4% | |
| GET 0-1 CEL | 12.2% | |
| GET 1-0 CEL | 12.0% | |
| GET 0-0 CEL | 10.9% | |
| GET 1-2 CEL | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GET goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).