ALA vs OSA
Alavés (home) vs Osasuna · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
ALA win 42.2% fair 2.37
Draw 26.0% fair 3.85
OSA win 31.9% fair 3.14
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.6% / 26.3% / 32.1%.
Expected Goals
ALA
1.39
—
1.19
OSA
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% | fair 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.2% | fair 1.92 |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| ALA 1-1 OSA | 12.5% | |
| ALA 1-0 OSA | 10.5% | |
| ALA 0-1 OSA | 9.0% | |
| ALA 2-1 OSA | 8.7% | |
| ALA 0-0 OSA | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ALA goals · Columns: OSA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).