VIL vs DEP
Villarreal (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 70% · pregame locked (09-05 · FT 2-3 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
VIL win 63.3% fair 1.58
Draw 19.2% fair 5.22
DEP win 17.5% fair 5.71
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 67.0% / 18.1% / 14.9%.
Expected Goals
VIL
2.35
—
1.02
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.6% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.4% | fair 2.91 |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 2-1 DEP | 9.7% | |
| VIL 2-0 DEP | 9.5% | |
| VIL 1-1 DEP | 8.2% | |
| VIL 1-0 DEP | 8.0% | |
| VIL 3-1 DEP | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).