VIL vs DEP
Villarreal (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 69%
Match Outcome
VIL win 65.4% fair 1.53
Draw 18.3% fair 5.47
DEP win 16.3% fair 6.14
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 69.7% / 17.0% / 13.3%.
Expected Goals
VIL
2.47
—
0.99
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.3% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.7% | fair 3.05 |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 2-0 DEP | 9.6% | |
| VIL 2-1 DEP | 9.5% | |
| VIL 3-0 DEP | 7.9% | |
| VIL 3-1 DEP | 7.8% | |
| VIL 1-0 DEP | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).