ESP vs SEV
Espanyol (home) vs Sevilla · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
ESP win 43.5% fair 2.30
Draw 24.5% fair 4.08
SEV win 32.0% fair 3.13
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.1% / 24.6% / 32.3%.
Expected Goals
ESP
1.57
—
1.32
SEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.8% | fair 2.23 |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-1 SEV | 11.5% | |
| ESP 2-1 SEV | 9.0% | |
| ESP 1-0 SEV | 8.7% | |
| ESP 1-2 SEV | 7.6% | |
| ESP 0-1 SEV | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: SEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).