VAL vs FCB
Valencia (home) vs Barcelona · model confidence 83% · pregame locked (09-06 · FT 0-5 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
VAL win 16.8% fair 5.95
Draw 16.9% fair 5.92
FCB win 66.3% fair 1.51
Expected Goals
VAL
1.12
—
2.67
FCB
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): VAL ×1.095 (matched 11), FCB ×1.100 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.9% | fair 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.1% | fair 3.68 |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| VAL 1-2 FCB | 9.0% | |
| VAL 0-2 FCB | 8.1% | |
| VAL 1-3 FCB | 8.0% | |
| VAL 0-3 FCB | 7.2% | |
| VAL 1-1 FCB | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 4.3 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 4.8 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 2.7 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: VAL goals · Columns: FCB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).