MLG vs LEV
Málaga (home) vs Levante · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
MLG win 37.8% fair 2.65
Draw 25.0% fair 4.00
LEV win 37.3% fair 2.68
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.7% / 25.2% / 39.1%.
Expected Goals
MLG
1.37
—
1.44
LEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.8% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| MLG 1-1 LEV | 11.9% | |
| MLG 0-1 LEV | 8.7% | |
| MLG 1-2 LEV | 8.6% | |
| MLG 1-0 LEV | 8.2% | |
| MLG 2-1 LEV | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MLG goals · Columns: LEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).