RAY vs RAC
Rayo Vallecano (home) vs Racing Santander · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
RAY win 50.2% fair 1.99
Draw 24.8% fair 4.03
RAC win 25.0% fair 4.01
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 51.2% / 25.0% / 23.8%.
Expected Goals
RAY
1.60
—
1.01
RAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.4% | fair 2.07 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.6% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAY 1-1 RAC | 11.9% | |
| RAY 1-0 RAC | 11.8% | |
| RAY 2-1 RAC | 9.5% | |
| RAY 2-0 RAC | 9.4% | |
| RAY 0-1 RAC | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAY goals · Columns: RAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).