ELC vs RMA
Elche (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (09-15 · FT 2-3 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ELC win 16.1% fair 6.21
Draw 17.1% fair 5.86
RMA win 66.8% fair 1.50
Expected Goals
ELC
1.01
—
2.58
RMA
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): ELC ×0.900 (matched 10), RMA ×1.100 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.5% | fair 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.5% | fair 3.28 |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELC 1-2 RMA | 9.3% | |
| ELC 0-2 RMA | 9.2% | |
| ELC 1-3 RMA | 8.0% | |
| ELC 0-3 RMA | 7.9% | |
| ELC 1-1 RMA | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 4.3 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 4.4 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ELC goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).