LEV vs ATH
Levante (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
LEV win 44.0% fair 2.27
Draw 24.7% fair 4.04
ATH win 31.3% fair 3.20
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.7% / 24.8% / 31.5%.
Expected Goals
LEV
1.55
—
1.28
ATH
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.9% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.1% | fair 2.17 |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEV 1-1 ATH | 11.7% | |
| LEV 1-0 ATH | 9.1% | |
| LEV 2-1 ATH | 9.1% | |
| LEV 0-1 ATH | 7.5% | |
| LEV 1-2 ATH | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEV goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).