LEV vs ATH
Levante (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (10-21 · FT 3-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
LEV win 41.4% fair 2.41
Draw 24.1% fair 4.15
ATH win 34.5% fair 2.90
Expected Goals
LEV
1.58
—
1.45
ATH
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): LEV ×1.100 (matched 8), ATH ×1.100 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | fair 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.6% | fair 2.40 |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEV 1-1 ATH | 11.1% | |
| LEV 2-1 ATH | 8.7% | |
| LEV 1-2 ATH | 8.0% | |
| LEV 1-0 ATH | 7.6% | |
| LEV 0-1 ATH | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEV goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).