DEP vs SEV
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Sevilla · model confidence 71% · pregame locked (09-16 · FT 0-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
DEP win 39.7% fair 2.52
Draw 24.4% fair 4.09
SEV win 35.9% fair 2.79
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.4% / 24.5% / 37.1%.
Expected Goals
DEP
1.49
—
1.46
SEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.6% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.4% | fair 2.31 |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 1-1 SEV | 11.4% | |
| DEP 2-1 SEV | 8.5% | |
| DEP 1-2 SEV | 8.3% | |
| DEP 1-0 SEV | 7.8% | |
| DEP 0-1 SEV | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: SEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).