DEP vs SEV
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Sevilla · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
DEP win 36.5% fair 2.74
Draw 24.4% fair 4.09
SEV win 39.0% fair 2.56
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 34.3% / 24.5% / 41.2%.
Expected Goals
DEP
1.39
—
1.54
SEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.9% | fair 2.28 |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 1-1 SEV | 11.4% | |
| DEP 1-2 SEV | 8.8% | |
| DEP 0-1 SEV | 8.2% | |
| DEP 2-1 SEV | 7.9% | |
| DEP 1-0 SEV | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: SEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).