ATM vs OSA
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Osasuna · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (09-16 · FT 4-0 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ATM win 51.2% fair 1.95
Draw 24.1% fair 4.15
OSA win 24.7% fair 4.05
Expected Goals
ATM
1.69
—
1.07
OSA
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): ATM ×0.900 (matched 11), OSA ×1.100 (matched 9). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.9% | fair 2.09 |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 1-1 OSA | 11.4% | |
| ATM 1-0 OSA | 10.7% | |
| ATM 2-1 OSA | 9.7% | |
| ATM 2-0 OSA | 9.0% | |
| ATM 0-1 OSA | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: OSA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).