ATM vs OSA
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Osasuna · model confidence 80%
Match Outcome
ATM win 53.7% fair 1.86
Draw 23.7% fair 4.21
OSA win 22.5% fair 4.44
Expected Goals
ATM
1.73
—
0.99
OSA
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | fair 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.8% | fair 2.05 |
| Both teams to score | 51.8% | fair 1.93 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 1-0 OSA | 11.4% | |
| ATM 1-1 OSA | 11.3% | |
| ATM 2-0 OSA | 9.8% | |
| ATM 2-1 OSA | 9.8% | |
| ATM 0-0 OSA | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: OSA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).