FCB vs RAC
Barcelona (home) vs Racing Santander · model confidence 74%
Match Outcome
FCB win 77.4% fair 1.29
Draw 12.7% fair 7.86
RAC win 9.8% fair 10.15
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 83.2% / 10.7% / 6.2%.
Expected Goals
FCB
3.20
—
0.82
RAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.5% | fair 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23.5% | fair 4.26 |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 3-0 RAC | 9.8% | |
| FCB 2-0 RAC | 9.2% | |
| FCB 3-1 RAC | 8.0% | |
| FCB 4-0 RAC | 7.8% | |
| FCB 2-1 RAC | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 9.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: RAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).