RAY vs ESP
Rayo Vallecano (home) vs Espanyol · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (09-15 · FT 2-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.05
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
RAY win 43.5% fair 2.30
Draw 24.8% fair 4.03
ESP win 31.7% fair 3.16
Expected Goals
RAY
1.54
—
1.29
ESP
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): RAY ×1.100 (matched 9), ESP ×1.050 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.5% | fair 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.5% | fair 2.15 |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAY 1-1 ESP | 11.8% | |
| RAY 1-0 ESP | 9.1% | |
| RAY 2-1 ESP | 9.0% | |
| RAY 0-1 ESP | 7.7% | |
| RAY 1-2 ESP | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAY goals · Columns: ESP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).