RAY vs ESP
Rayo Vallecano (home) vs Espanyol · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
RAY win 43.3% fair 2.31
Draw 26.6% fair 3.76
ESP win 30.0% fair 3.33
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.9% / 27.0% / 30.0%.
Expected Goals
RAY
1.36
—
1.09
ESP
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.3% | fair 2.26 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.7% | fair 1.80 |
| Both teams to score | 49.4% | fair 2.03 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAY 1-1 ESP | 12.8% | |
| RAY 1-0 ESP | 11.7% | |
| RAY 0-1 ESP | 9.4% | |
| RAY 2-1 ESP | 8.7% | |
| RAY 0-0 ESP | 8.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAY goals · Columns: ESP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).