BET vs GET
Real Betis (home) vs Getafe · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (09-17 · FT 1-0 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×0.94
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BET win 56.2% fair 1.78
Draw 24.6% fair 4.07
GET win 19.2% fair 5.21
Expected Goals
BET
1.62
—
0.78
GET
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): BET ×1.100 (matched 11), GET ×0.937 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
| Both teams to score | 43.5% | fair 2.30 |
Most Likely Scores
| BET 1-0 GET | 14.7% | |
| BET 2-0 GET | 11.9% | |
| BET 1-1 GET | 11.5% | |
| BET 2-1 GET | 9.3% | |
| BET 0-0 GET | 9.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BET goals · Columns: GET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).