ESP vs ELC
Espanyol (home) vs Elche · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
ESP win 47.6% fair 2.10
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
ELC win 28.6% fair 3.50
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.9% / 23.8% / 28.3%.
Expected Goals
ESP
1.71
—
1.26
ELC
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.0% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.0% | fair 2.33 |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-1 ELC | 11.1% | |
| ESP 2-1 ELC | 9.4% | |
| ESP 1-0 ELC | 8.8% | |
| ESP 2-0 ELC | 7.5% | |
| ESP 1-2 ELC | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: ELC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).