OSA vs RAY
Osasuna (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (09-19 · FT 1-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
OSA win 40.9% fair 2.44
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
RAY win 34.4% fair 2.91
Expected Goals
OSA
1.51
—
1.39
RAY
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): OSA ×1.100 (matched 9), RAY ×1.100 (matched 8). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.8% | fair 2.23 |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| OSA 1-1 RAY | 11.6% | |
| OSA 2-1 RAY | 8.7% | |
| OSA 1-0 RAY | 8.4% | |
| OSA 1-2 RAY | 8.0% | |
| OSA 0-1 RAY | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OSA goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).