OSA vs RAY
Osasuna (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
OSA win 41.9% fair 2.39
Draw 27.5% fair 3.64
RAY win 30.6% fair 3.27
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.3% / 28.0% / 30.7%.
Expected Goals
OSA
1.27
—
1.05
RAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.0% | fair 2.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.0% | fair 1.70 |
| Both teams to score | 46.8% | fair 2.14 |
Most Likely Scores
| OSA 1-1 RAY | 13.1% | |
| OSA 1-0 RAY | 12.4% | |
| OSA 0-1 RAY | 10.3% | |
| OSA 0-0 RAY | 9.8% | |
| OSA 2-1 RAY | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OSA goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).