VAL vs RSO
Valencia (home) vs Real Sociedad · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
VAL win 42.9% fair 2.33
Draw 24.1% fair 4.16
RSO win 33.1% fair 3.02
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.4% / 24.1% / 33.6%.
Expected Goals
VAL
1.61
—
1.41
RSO
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.8% | fair 2.39 |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| VAL 1-1 RSO | 11.1% | |
| VAL 2-1 RSO | 8.9% | |
| VAL 1-0 RSO | 7.8% | |
| VAL 1-2 RSO | 7.8% | |
| VAL 0-1 RSO | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VAL goals · Columns: RSO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).