VAL vs RSO
Valencia (home) vs Real Sociedad · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (09-20 · FT 2-3 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
VAL win 41.0% fair 2.44
Draw 23.4% fair 4.28
RSO win 35.7% fair 2.80
Expected Goals
VAL
1.66
—
1.57
RSO
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): VAL ×1.100 (matched 10), RSO ×1.100 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.6% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.4% | fair 2.67 |
| Both teams to score | 64.1% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| VAL 1-1 RSO | 10.3% | |
| VAL 2-1 RSO | 8.6% | |
| VAL 1-2 RSO | 8.1% | |
| VAL 2-2 RSO | 6.7% | |
| VAL 1-0 RSO | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.3 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: VAL goals · Columns: RSO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).