DEP vs BET
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Real Betis · model confidence 73% · pregame locked (09-20 · FT 1-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
DEP win 30.0% fair 3.34
Draw 24.3% fair 4.11
BET win 45.7% fair 2.19
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 27.0% / 24.4% / 48.6%.
Expected Goals
DEP
1.17
—
1.65
BET
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.6% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 1-1 BET | 11.5% | |
| DEP 0-1 BET | 9.9% | |
| DEP 1-2 BET | 9.5% | |
| DEP 0-2 BET | 8.1% | |
| DEP 1-0 BET | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: BET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).