DEP vs BET
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Real Betis · model confidence 69%
Match Outcome
DEP win 29.0% fair 3.44
Draw 24.0% fair 4.16
BET win 46.9% fair 2.13
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 25.3% / 24.0% / 50.7%.
Expected Goals
DEP
1.13
—
1.70
BET
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.4% | fair 2.16 |
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 1-1 BET | 11.4% | |
| DEP 0-1 BET | 10.1% | |
| DEP 1-2 BET | 9.6% | |
| DEP 0-2 BET | 8.5% | |
| DEP 1-0 BET | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: BET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).