EDGERATING
Methodology

SEV vs FCB

Sevilla (home) vs Barcelona · model confidence 82%

Match Outcome

SEV win 19.3% fair 5.18
Draw 18.8% fair 5.32
FCB win 61.9% fair 1.62

Expected Goals

SEV 1.12 2.39 FCB
Over 2.5 goals68.2%fair 1.47
Under 2.5 goals31.8%fair 3.14
Both teams to score61.3%fair 1.63

Most Likely Scores

SEV 1-2 FCB9.6%
SEV 0-2 FCB8.5%
SEV 1-1 FCB8.0%
SEV 1-3 FCB7.6%
SEV 0-1 FCB7.1%

Scoreline Matrix

012345+
0 3.0 7.1 8.5 6.8 4.1 3.1
1 3.3 8.0 9.6 7.6 4.6 3.5
2 1.9 4.5 5.4 4.3 2.6 1.9
3 0.7 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.0 0.7
4 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2
5+ 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1

Rows: SEV goals · Columns: FCB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).

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