SEV vs FCB
Sevilla (home) vs Barcelona · model confidence 84% · pregame locked (09-19 · FT 1-3 ) · lineup adj ×0.91 / ×1.09
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
SEV win 12.9% fair 7.77
Draw 14.0% fair 7.15
FCB win 73.1% fair 1.37
Expected Goals
SEV
1.03
—
3.05
FCB
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): SEV ×0.912 (matched 9), FCB ×1.085 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.4% | fair 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22.6% | fair 4.42 |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| SEV 1-3 FCB | 8.2% | |
| SEV 1-2 FCB | 8.1% | |
| SEV 0-3 FCB | 8.0% | |
| SEV 0-2 FCB | 7.8% | |
| SEV 1-4 FCB | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 6.9 |
| 1 | 1.7 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 7.1 |
| 2 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 3.7 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: SEV goals · Columns: FCB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).