VIL vs LEV
Villarreal (home) vs Levante · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (09-20 · FT 3-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.08 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
VIL win 60.1% fair 1.66
Draw 19.2% fair 5.21
LEV win 20.7% fair 4.83
Expected Goals
VIL
2.43
—
1.32
LEV
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): VIL ×1.077 (matched 9), LEV ×1.100 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.3% | fair 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.7% | fair 3.61 |
| Both teams to score | 66.8% | fair 1.50 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 2-1 LEV | 9.2% | |
| VIL 1-1 LEV | 7.5% | |
| VIL 3-1 LEV | 7.4% | |
| VIL 2-0 LEV | 6.9% | |
| VIL 2-2 LEV | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: LEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).