VIL vs LEV
Villarreal (home) vs Levante · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
VIL win 61.3% fair 1.63
Draw 19.9% fair 5.03
LEV win 18.8% fair 5.33
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 63.5% / 19.3% / 17.2%.
Expected Goals
VIL
2.24
—
1.08
LEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.6% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.4% | fair 2.82 |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 2-1 LEV | 9.8% | |
| VIL 2-0 LEV | 9.0% | |
| VIL 1-1 LEV | 8.7% | |
| VIL 1-0 LEV | 8.1% | |
| VIL 3-1 LEV | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: LEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).