ATH vs ALA
Athletic Club (home) vs Alavés · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
ATH win 38.4% fair 2.60
Draw 25.6% fair 3.91
ALA win 36.0% fair 2.78
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.3% / 25.8% / 36.9%.
Expected Goals
ATH
1.35
—
1.35
ALA
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | fair 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.4% | fair 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-1 ALA | 12.2% | |
| ATH 1-0 ALA | 9.1% | |
| ATH 0-1 ALA | 9.0% | |
| ATH 2-1 ALA | 8.3% | |
| ATH 1-2 ALA | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: ALA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).