CEL vs RAC
Celta Vigo (home) vs Racing Santander · model confidence 69%
Match Outcome
CEL win 54.8% fair 1.82
Draw 22.5% fair 4.45
RAC win 22.7% fair 4.40
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 56.8% / 22.1% / 21.1%.
Expected Goals
CEL
1.91
—
1.08
RAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.4% | fair 2.36 |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-1 RAC | 10.4% | |
| CEL 2-1 RAC | 9.9% | |
| CEL 1-0 RAC | 9.6% | |
| CEL 2-0 RAC | 9.2% | |
| CEL 3-1 RAC | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: RAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).