ATM vs RMA
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 85% · pregame locked (09-20 · FT 2-1 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ATM win 30.3% fair 3.30
Draw 23.0% fair 4.34
RMA win 46.7% fair 2.14
Expected Goals
ATM
1.36
—
1.81
RMA
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): ATM ×0.900 (matched 10), RMA ×1.100 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.4% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.6% | fair 2.59 |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 1-1 RMA | 10.3% | |
| ATM 1-2 RMA | 9.4% | |
| ATM 0-1 RMA | 7.6% | |
| ATM 2-1 RMA | 7.0% | |
| ATM 0-2 RMA | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).