ATM vs RMA
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 84%
Match Outcome
ATM win 34.6% fair 2.89
Draw 24.0% fair 4.16
RMA win 41.3% fair 2.42
Expected Goals
ATM
1.41
—
1.62
RMA
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.7% | fair 2.40 |
| Both teams to score | 60.6% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 1-1 RMA | 11.1% | |
| ATM 1-2 RMA | 8.9% | |
| ATM 0-1 RMA | 7.8% | |
| ATM 2-1 RMA | 7.8% | |
| ATM 1-0 RMA | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).