BET vs OSA
Real Betis (home) vs Osasuna · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (10-11 · FT 5-2 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.08
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BET win 57.4% fair 1.74
Draw 21.9% fair 4.57
OSA win 20.7% fair 4.83
Expected Goals
BET
1.96
—
1.04
OSA
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): BET ×1.100 (matched 11), OSA ×1.079 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.5% | fair 2.36 |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| BET 1-1 OSA | 10.2% | |
| BET 2-1 OSA | 9.9% | |
| BET 1-0 OSA | 9.8% | |
| BET 2-0 OSA | 9.6% | |
| BET 3-1 OSA | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BET goals · Columns: OSA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).