RMA vs VIL
Real Madrid (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 85% · pregame locked (10-10 · FT 1-0 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.07
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
RMA win 60.0% fair 1.67
Draw 18.8% fair 5.31
VIL win 21.2% fair 4.72
Expected Goals
RMA
2.51
—
1.41
VIL
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): RMA ×1.100 (matched 11), VIL ×1.074 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.0% | fair 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25.0% | fair 4.00 |
| Both teams to score | 69.5% | fair 1.44 |
Most Likely Scores
| RMA 2-1 VIL | 8.8% | |
| RMA 3-1 VIL | 7.4% | |
| RMA 1-1 VIL | 7.0% | |
| RMA 2-0 VIL | 6.2% | |
| RMA 2-2 VIL | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: RMA goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).