RMA vs VIL
Real Madrid (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 83%
Match Outcome
RMA win 55.3% fair 1.81
Draw 21.1% fair 4.73
VIL win 23.5% fair 4.25
Expected Goals
RMA
2.11
—
1.29
VIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.9% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.1% | fair 2.94 |
| Both teams to score | 63.6% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| RMA 2-1 VIL | 9.6% | |
| RMA 1-1 VIL | 9.1% | |
| RMA 2-0 VIL | 7.5% | |
| RMA 1-0 VIL | 7.1% | |
| RMA 3-1 VIL | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: RMA goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).