RAY vs ATH
Rayo Vallecano (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
RAY win 47.1% fair 2.12
Draw 25.8% fair 3.87
ATH win 27.1% fair 3.69
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.2% / 26.1% / 26.7%.
Expected Goals
RAY
1.48
—
1.04
ATH
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | fair 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.9% | fair 1.86 |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | fair 2.00 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAY 1-1 ATH | 12.4% | |
| RAY 1-0 ATH | 11.9% | |
| RAY 2-1 ATH | 9.2% | |
| RAY 2-0 ATH | 8.8% | |
| RAY 0-1 ATH | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAY goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).