RAY vs ATH
Rayo Vallecano (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 81% · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.10
Match Outcome
RAY win 43.9% fair 2.28
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
ATH win 31.4% fair 3.19
Expected Goals
RAY
1.56
—
1.29
ATH
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): RAY ×1.100 (matched 8), ATH ×1.100 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.1% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.9% | fair 2.18 |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAY 1-1 ATH | 11.7% | |
| RAY 2-1 ATH | 9.1% | |
| RAY 1-0 ATH | 9.1% | |
| RAY 1-2 ATH | 7.5% | |
| RAY 0-1 ATH | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAY goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).