RSO vs DEP
Real Sociedad (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 73% · pregame locked (10-11 · FT 3-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
RSO win 51.0% fair 1.96
Draw 22.5% fair 4.44
DEP win 26.5% fair 3.77
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 51.9% / 22.3% / 25.8%.
Expected Goals
RSO
1.92
—
1.30
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.2% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.8% | fair 2.65 |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| RSO 1-1 DEP | 10.0% | |
| RSO 2-1 DEP | 9.6% | |
| RSO 1-0 DEP | 7.7% | |
| RSO 2-0 DEP | 7.4% | |
| RSO 1-2 DEP | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RSO goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).