RSO vs DEP
Real Sociedad (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
RSO win 53.6% fair 1.86
Draw 22.0% fair 4.54
DEP win 24.4% fair 4.10
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 55.4% / 21.5% / 23.0%.
Expected Goals
RSO
2.01
—
1.23
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.7% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.3% | fair 2.68 |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| RSO 2-1 DEP | 9.7% | |
| RSO 1-1 DEP | 9.7% | |
| RSO 2-0 DEP | 7.9% | |
| RSO 1-0 DEP | 7.9% | |
| RSO 3-1 DEP | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RSO goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).