RAC vs VAL
Racing Santander (home) vs Valencia · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
RAC win 38.3% fair 2.61
Draw 25.1% fair 3.98
VAL win 36.6% fair 2.73
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 36.5% / 25.3% / 38.1%.
Expected Goals
RAC
1.37
—
1.41
VAL
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.3% | fair 2.11 |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAC 1-1 VAL | 12.0% | |
| RAC 0-1 VAL | 8.7% | |
| RAC 1-0 VAL | 8.5% | |
| RAC 1-2 VAL | 8.4% | |
| RAC 2-1 VAL | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAC goals · Columns: VAL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).