FCB vs GET
Barcelona (home) vs Getafe · model confidence 85% · pregame locked (10-10 · FT 3-0 ) · lineup adj ×0.99 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
FCB win 77.5% fair 1.29
Draw 14.1% fair 7.09
GET win 8.4% fair 11.85
Expected Goals
FCB
2.65
—
0.62
GET
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): FCB ×0.989 (matched 10), GET ×0.900 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.4% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.6% | fair 2.73 |
| Both teams to score | 43.0% | fair 2.33 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 2-0 GET | 13.3% | |
| FCB 3-0 GET | 11.8% | |
| FCB 1-0 GET | 10.1% | |
| FCB 2-1 GET | 8.3% | |
| FCB 4-0 GET | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.3 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.8 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: GET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).