ALA vs ATM
Alavés (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 80%
Match Outcome
ALA win 33.1% fair 3.02
Draw 25.2% fair 3.98
ATM win 41.7% fair 2.40
Expected Goals
ALA
1.25
—
1.50
ATM
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.8% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.2% | fair 2.08 |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| ALA 1-1 ATM | 12.0% | |
| ALA 0-1 ATM | 9.6% | |
| ALA 1-2 ATM | 9.0% | |
| ALA 1-0 ATM | 8.0% | |
| ALA 2-1 ATM | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ALA goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).