ALA vs ATM
Alavés (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (10-10 · FT 1-2 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ALA win 34.8% fair 2.88
Draw 25.3% fair 3.96
ATM win 40.0% fair 2.50
Expected Goals
ALA
1.30
—
1.46
ATM
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): ALA ×1.100 (matched 11), ATM ×0.900 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | fair 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.0% | fair 2.09 |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| ALA 1-1 ATM | 12.0% | |
| ALA 0-1 ATM | 9.3% | |
| ALA 1-2 ATM | 8.8% | |
| ALA 1-0 ATM | 8.2% | |
| ALA 2-1 ATM | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ALA goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).