MLG vs ESP
Málaga (home) vs Espanyol · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
MLG win 34.6% fair 2.89
Draw 25.2% fair 3.97
ESP win 40.2% fair 2.49
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 31.8% / 25.5% / 42.7%.
Expected Goals
MLG
1.24
—
1.48
ESP
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.1% | fair 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.9% | fair 2.04 |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| MLG 1-1 ESP | 12.1% | |
| MLG 0-1 ESP | 9.7% | |
| MLG 1-2 ESP | 8.9% | |
| MLG 1-0 ESP | 8.2% | |
| MLG 2-1 ESP | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MLG goals · Columns: ESP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).