LEV vs SEV
Levante (home) vs Sevilla · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (10-12 · FT 3-3 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
LEV win 46.6% fair 2.14
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
SEV win 29.4% fair 3.40
Expected Goals
LEV
1.68
—
1.29
SEV
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): LEV ×1.100 (matched 11), SEV ×0.900 (matched 9). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.0% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.0% | fair 2.32 |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEV 1-1 SEV | 11.1% | |
| LEV 2-1 SEV | 9.3% | |
| LEV 1-0 SEV | 8.6% | |
| LEV 2-0 SEV | 7.3% | |
| LEV 1-2 SEV | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.1 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEV goals · Columns: SEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).