NEW vs EVE
Newcastle United (home) vs Everton · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
NEW win 55.7% fair 1.79
Draw 22.6% fair 4.42
EVE win 21.7% fair 4.62
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 57.2% / 22.4% / 20.3%.
Expected Goals
NEW
1.87
—
1.02
EVE
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.7% | fair 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 1-1 EVE | 10.6% | |
| NEW 1-0 EVE | 10.4% | |
| NEW 2-1 EVE | 9.9% | |
| NEW 2-0 EVE | 9.7% | |
| NEW 3-1 EVE | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: EVE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).