NEW vs EVE
Newcastle United (home) vs Everton · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NEW win 52.2% fair 1.92
Draw 24.2% fair 4.14
EVE win 23.7% fair 4.23
Expected Goals
NEW
1.68
—
1.02
EVE
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | fair 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.4% | fair 2.02 |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 1-1 EVE | 11.5% | |
| NEW 1-0 EVE | 11.3% | |
| NEW 2-1 EVE | 9.7% | |
| NEW 2-0 EVE | 9.5% | |
| NEW 0-1 EVE | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: EVE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).