TOT vs CRY
Tottenham Hotspur (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
TOT win 46.3% fair 2.16
Draw 22.9% fair 4.36
CRY win 30.7% fair 3.26
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 46.6% / 22.8% / 30.7%.
Expected Goals
TOT
1.82
—
1.44
CRY
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.2% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.8% | fair 2.72 |
| Both teams to score | 63.9% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOT 1-1 CRY | 10.1% | |
| TOT 2-1 CRY | 9.2% | |
| TOT 1-2 CRY | 7.3% | |
| TOT 1-0 CRY | 7.0% | |
| TOT 2-2 CRY | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: TOT goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).