COV vs SUN
Coventry City (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COV win 37.6% fair 2.66
Draw 25.7% fair 3.89
SUN win 36.7% fair 2.73
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 36.1% / 26.1% / 37.8%.
Expected Goals
COV
1.31
—
1.34
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.5% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 1-1 SUN | 12.4% | |
| COV 0-1 SUN | 9.5% | |
| COV 1-0 SUN | 9.2% | |
| COV 1-2 SUN | 8.3% | |
| COV 2-1 SUN | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).