COV vs SUN
Coventry City (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 63%
Match Outcome
COV win 37.3% fair 2.68
Draw 24.5% fair 4.09
SUN win 38.2% fair 2.62
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.2% / 24.6% / 40.2%.
Expected Goals
COV
1.41
—
1.52
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.9% | fair 2.28 |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 1-1 SUN | 11.4% | |
| COV 1-2 SUN | 8.7% | |
| COV 0-1 SUN | 8.1% | |
| COV 2-1 SUN | 8.1% | |
| COV 1-0 SUN | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.4 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).