LIV vs ARS
Liverpool (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 88% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIV win 33.0% fair 3.03
Draw 27.4% fair 3.65
ARS win 39.7% fair 2.52
Expected Goals
LIV
1.11
—
1.28
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.7% | fair 2.34 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.3% | fair 1.75 |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | fair 2.07 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 1-1 ARS | 13.0% | |
| LIV 0-1 ARS | 11.7% | |
| LIV 1-0 ARS | 10.2% | |
| LIV 0-0 ARS | 9.2% | |
| LIV 1-2 ARS | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).