LIV vs ARS
Liverpool (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 86%
Match Outcome
LIV win 33.6% fair 2.97
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
ARS win 41.0% fair 2.44
Expected Goals
LIV
1.26
—
1.46
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.7% | fair 2.05 |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 1-1 ARS | 12.1% | |
| LIV 0-1 ARS | 9.6% | |
| LIV 1-2 ARS | 8.9% | |
| LIV 1-0 ARS | 8.3% | |
| LIV 2-1 ARS | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.6 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).