BRE vs NFO
Brentford (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
BRE win 46.5% fair 2.15
Draw 24.8% fair 4.03
NFO win 28.7% fair 3.48
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 46.7% / 24.9% / 28.3%.
Expected Goals
BRE
1.58
—
1.17
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | fair 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.0% | fair 2.08 |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 1-1 NFO | 11.8% | |
| BRE 1-0 NFO | 10.1% | |
| BRE 2-1 NFO | 9.3% | |
| BRE 2-0 NFO | 7.9% | |
| BRE 0-1 NFO | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).