BRE vs NFO
Brentford (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BRE win 48.0% fair 2.09
Draw 25.3% fair 3.96
NFO win 26.8% fair 3.74
Expected Goals
BRE
1.55
—
1.07
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | fair 1.94 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 1-1 NFO | 12.1% | |
| BRE 1-0 NFO | 11.3% | |
| BRE 2-1 NFO | 9.3% | |
| BRE 2-0 NFO | 8.7% | |
| BRE 0-1 NFO | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.1 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).