Gameweek 10
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-07 15:00 | ARS vs HUL | 78.7% | 12.6% | 8.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 15:00 | BHA vs BRE | 49.2% | 22.5% | 28.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 15:00 | CRY vs LIV | 26.5% | 23.1% | 50.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-07 15:00 | EVE vs COV | 56.2% | 22.6% | 21.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 15:00 | FUL vs NEW | 32.8% | 23.6% | 43.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-07 15:00 | IPS vs BOU | 33.6% | 23.5% | 42.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-07 15:00 | LEE vs TOT | 38.7% | 23.0% | 38.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 15:00 | MUN vs AVL | 42.2% | 23.5% | 34.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 15:00 | NFO vs MCI | 23.9% | 22.4% | 53.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-07 15:00 | SUN vs CHE | 26.1% | 22.0% | 51.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.