Gameweek 10
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-06 20:00 | EVE vs COV | 54.0% | 24.3% | 21.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 12:30 | LEE vs TOT | 39.5% | 24.9% | 35.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 15:00 | ARS vs HUL | 74.9% | 15.6% | 9.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 15:00 | FUL vs NEW | 35.2% | 25.1% | 39.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-07 17:30 | NFO vs MCI | 23.0% | 22.8% | 54.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-08 14:00 | BHA vs BRE | 55.5% | 21.1% | 23.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-08 14:00 | CRY vs LIV | 25.1% | 23.4% | 51.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-08 14:00 | IPS vs BOU | 33.2% | 23.2% | 43.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-08 14:00 | SUN vs CHE | 26.0% | 22.3% | 51.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-08 16:30 | MUN vs AVL | 38.9% | 24.3% | 36.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.