BHA vs BRE
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Brentford · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BHA win 55.5% fair 1.80
Draw 21.1% fair 4.74
BRE win 23.4% fair 4.28
Expected Goals
BHA
2.12
—
1.27
BRE
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.9% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.1% | fair 2.93 |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 2-1 BRE | 9.6% | |
| BHA 1-1 BRE | 9.1% | |
| BHA 2-0 BRE | 7.5% | |
| BHA 1-0 BRE | 7.1% | |
| BHA 3-1 BRE | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: BRE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).