BHA vs BRE
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Brentford · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
BHA win 49.2% fair 2.03
Draw 22.5% fair 4.44
BRE win 28.2% fair 3.54
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.9% / 22.3% / 27.8%.
Expected Goals
BHA
1.90
—
1.37
BRE
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.6% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.4% | fair 2.74 |
| Both teams to score | 63.5% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 1-1 BRE | 9.9% | |
| BHA 2-1 BRE | 9.4% | |
| BHA 1-0 BRE | 7.2% | |
| BHA 2-0 BRE | 6.8% | |
| BHA 1-2 BRE | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: BRE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).