SUN vs CHE
Sunderland (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SUN win 26.0% fair 3.85
Draw 22.3% fair 4.49
CHE win 51.7% fair 1.93
Expected Goals
SUN
1.21
—
1.94
CHE
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.9% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.1% | fair 2.55 |
| Both teams to score | 60.0% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| SUN 1-1 CHE | 10.1% | |
| SUN 1-2 CHE | 9.8% | |
| SUN 0-1 CHE | 8.3% | |
| SUN 0-2 CHE | 8.1% | |
| SUN 1-3 CHE | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SUN goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).