SUN vs CHE
Sunderland (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
SUN win 26.1% fair 3.84
Draw 22.0% fair 4.54
CHE win 51.9% fair 1.93
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 22.8% / 21.7% / 55.5%.
Expected Goals
SUN
1.20
—
1.98
CHE
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.6% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.4% | fair 2.61 |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| SUN 1-1 CHE | 9.9% | |
| SUN 1-2 CHE | 9.8% | |
| SUN 0-1 CHE | 8.2% | |
| SUN 0-2 CHE | 8.1% | |
| SUN 1-3 CHE | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SUN goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).