IPS vs BOU
Ipswich Town (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
IPS win 33.2% fair 3.01
Draw 23.2% fair 4.31
BOU win 43.6% fair 2.30
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 31.1% / 23.1% / 45.9%.
Expected Goals
IPS
1.43
—
1.78
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.1% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.9% | fair 2.64 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 1-1 BOU | 10.3% | |
| IPS 1-2 BOU | 9.1% | |
| IPS 2-1 BOU | 7.4% | |
| IPS 0-1 BOU | 7.2% | |
| IPS 2-2 BOU | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).