IPS vs BOU
Ipswich Town (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
IPS win 33.6% fair 2.97
Draw 23.5% fair 4.26
BOU win 42.9% fair 2.33
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 30.7% / 23.3% / 45.9%.
Expected Goals
IPS
1.39
—
1.74
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.5% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.5% | fair 2.53 |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 1-1 BOU | 10.6% | |
| IPS 1-2 BOU | 9.2% | |
| IPS 0-1 BOU | 7.6% | |
| IPS 2-1 BOU | 7.3% | |
| IPS 0-2 BOU | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).