Gameweek 9
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 12:30 | CHE vs MUN | 54.0% | 21.7% | 24.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-31 15:00 | BOU vs LEE | 48.7% | 23.0% | 28.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-31 15:00 | BRE vs NFO | 46.5% | 24.8% | 28.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-31 15:00 | COV vs SUN | 37.3% | 24.5% | 38.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-31 15:00 | HUL vs IPS | 40.8% | 24.9% | 34.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-31 15:00 | MCI vs BHA | 61.5% | 19.2% | 19.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-31 17:30 | TOT vs CRY | 46.3% | 22.9% | 30.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-01 14:00 | AVL vs FUL | 50.6% | 22.6% | 26.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-01 16:30 | LIV vs ARS | 33.6% | 25.4% | 41.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-02 20:00 | NEW vs EVE | 55.7% | 22.6% | 21.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.