MCI vs BHA
Manchester City (home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MCI win 54.3% fair 1.84
Draw 20.7% fair 4.82
BHA win 24.9% fair 4.01
Expected Goals
MCI
2.19
—
1.41
BHA
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.6% | fair 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.4% | fair 3.29 |
| Both teams to score | 67.0% | fair 1.49 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 2-1 BHA | 9.3% | |
| MCI 1-1 BHA | 8.5% | |
| MCI 3-1 BHA | 6.7% | |
| MCI 2-0 BHA | 6.6% | |
| MCI 2-2 BHA | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: BHA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).