MCI vs BHA
Manchester City (home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion · model confidence 82%
Match Outcome
MCI win 61.5% fair 1.63
Draw 19.2% fair 5.22
BHA win 19.4% fair 5.16
Expected Goals
MCI
2.39
—
1.21
BHA
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.7% | fair 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.3% | fair 3.30 |
| Both teams to score | 63.8% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 2-1 BHA | 9.4% | |
| MCI 1-1 BHA | 7.9% | |
| MCI 2-0 BHA | 7.8% | |
| MCI 3-1 BHA | 7.5% | |
| MCI 1-0 BHA | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: BHA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).