CHE vs MUN
Chelsea (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
CHE win 54.0% fair 1.85
Draw 21.7% fair 4.60
MUN win 24.2% fair 4.12
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 55.5% / 21.4% / 23.2%.
Expected Goals
CHE
2.03
—
1.25
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.7% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.3% | fair 2.75 |
| Both teams to score | 62.0% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 2-1 MUN | 9.7% | |
| CHE 1-1 MUN | 9.5% | |
| CHE 2-0 MUN | 7.8% | |
| CHE 1-0 MUN | 7.6% | |
| CHE 3-1 MUN | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).