CHE vs MUN
Chelsea (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CHE win 54.6% fair 1.83
Draw 21.3% fair 4.69
MUN win 24.0% fair 4.16
Expected Goals
CHE
2.09
—
1.29
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.5% | fair 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.5% | fair 2.90 |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 2-1 MUN | 9.6% | |
| CHE 1-1 MUN | 9.2% | |
| CHE 2-0 MUN | 7.5% | |
| CHE 1-0 MUN | 7.2% | |
| CHE 3-1 MUN | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).