BOU vs LEE
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 73%
Match Outcome
BOU win 48.7% fair 2.05
Draw 23.0% fair 4.34
LEE win 28.3% fair 3.54
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.4% / 22.8% / 27.8%.
Expected Goals
BOU
1.83
—
1.32
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.9% | fair 2.57 |
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 1-1 LEE | 10.3% | |
| BOU 2-1 LEE | 9.5% | |
| BOU 1-0 LEE | 7.8% | |
| BOU 2-0 LEE | 7.2% | |
| BOU 1-2 LEE | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).