BOU vs LEE
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOU win 46.3% fair 2.16
Draw 24.3% fair 4.12
LEE win 29.5% fair 3.39
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 46.4% / 24.3% / 29.3%.
Expected Goals
BOU
1.64
—
1.25
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.8% | fair 2.23 |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 1-1 LEE | 11.4% | |
| BOU 2-1 LEE | 9.3% | |
| BOU 1-0 LEE | 9.1% | |
| BOU 2-0 LEE | 7.5% | |
| BOU 1-2 LEE | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).