AVL vs FUL
Aston Villa (home) vs Fulham · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
AVL win 50.6% fair 1.97
Draw 22.6% fair 4.42
FUL win 26.8% fair 3.74
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 51.4% / 22.4% / 26.2%.
Expected Goals
AVL
1.89
—
1.30
FUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.2% | fair 2.62 |
| Both teams to score | 61.7% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 1-1 FUL | 10.1% | |
| AVL 2-1 FUL | 9.6% | |
| AVL 1-0 FUL | 7.8% | |
| AVL 2-0 FUL | 7.4% | |
| AVL 1-2 FUL | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: FUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).