AVL vs FUL
Aston Villa (home) vs Fulham · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AVL win 51.0% fair 1.96
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
FUL win 25.0% fair 3.99
Expected Goals
AVL
1.71
—
1.10
FUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | fair 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.7% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 1-1 FUL | 11.3% | |
| AVL 1-0 FUL | 10.3% | |
| AVL 2-1 FUL | 9.7% | |
| AVL 2-0 FUL | 8.8% | |
| AVL 0-1 FUL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: FUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).